The climate-damaging emissions of greenhouse gases will continue to rise until 2040, according to the energy agency IEA, even if all countries keep their commitments to climate protection. This emerges from the current world energy report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which was published in Paris on Wednesday. According to the unanimous view of climate experts, however, a radical reduction would be necessary.
“The world urgently needs to put a laser-like focus on reducing emissions,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol via Twitter. What is needed is a “grand coalition” that includes governments, investors, companies and those who stand up for climate protection.
Globally agreed sustainability goals are likely to be clearly missed in the long term, the agency warned. In doing so, it was based on a scenario that already takes current policy intentions and goals into account.
According to this, global energy consumption will increase by one percent per year until 2040. “More than half of this growth is covered by low-CO2 energy sources, above all photovoltaics (…)”. The demand for oil will slow significantly after 2025 and level off in the 2030s. Coal consumption will decrease.
“The dynamism of clean energy technologies is not enough to offset the effects of an expanding world economy and a growing population,” the agency summed up in its outlook. The increase in emissions is slowing down, “but the peak will not be reached before 2040”.
The agency reported that heavy SUVs could negate the positive effects of electromobility. The demand for SUVs and other heavy vehicles is already ensuring that more oil is consumed around the world.
At the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015, the 190 states represented agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees if possible. Many countries have since set national reduction targets. However, all experts say that these together are nowhere near enough. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated it in a special report: In order to achieve the 1.5-degree target, global CO2 emissions must fall by 45 percent by 2030 compared to 2010, and even to zero net by 2050. This requires an unprecedented, radical restructuring of our economic and transport system – away from coal, oil and gas, and do so immediately.